000
FXUS61 KPHI 190920
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
520 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build eastward into the region tonight and
throughout the day Tuesday. This high pressure system will
become anchored offshore through the middle and later parts of
this week. A cold frontal boundary is expected to approach from
the northwest this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The center of Hurricane Jose is forecast to continue drifting
northward today, remaining about 250 miles off the coasts of
Virginia and Maryland.

We are expecting a mostly cloudy sky for today. Showers
associated with Jose will drift off the ocean, affecting mainly
Delaware and New Jersey. However, scattered showers are
anticipated to spread into northeastern Maryland and eastern
Pennsylvania this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are forecast to
range from a few hundredths of an inch in our western counties
to close to an inch along the New Jersey shore.

A northeast to north wind is expected for today. It should
range from 5 to 10 MPH in our western counties to 20 to 25 MPH
with gusts along the coast.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to favor the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
The center of Jose is forecast to start turning northeastward
tonight and it should begin to lose it influence on our region
gradually.

The showers are expected to move eastward and out of our region
by about midnight. Clouds should linger over most of New
Jersey. However, some clearing is anticipated for parts of
eastern Pennsylvania and the upper Delmarva.

The wind is anticipated to back to the north and northwest with
speeds diminishing to 15 to 20 MPH near the coast. Speeds are
forecast to remain in the 5 to 10 MPH range well inland.

Minimum temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday:

Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from
our region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our
north and west with high pressure becoming established over the
region. Bufkit analysis for both the NAM and GFS yields north to
northwest winds on the backside of Jose from 10-15 mph on
Wednesday with higher gusts to 20 mph. By Thursday and Friday
these winds will gradually ease as the high pressure system
builds in. If the wind is light enough Thursday morning, a
marginal situation for patchy fog right around sunrise may
materialize.

Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite
warm for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a
good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s.
Typical MET/MAV guidance has be slow to catch up the anomalous
warmth coming.

Friday night through Monday:

Ensemble guidance continues to show us about one-third of all
members from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian suites show Jose making
a loop back to the southwest around the weekend timeframe. Any
southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid-level
ridging developing to our west and north throughout the
remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go
with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located
east enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our
region.

Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region
through early next weekend with a strong - PNA pattern of almost
four standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of
anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble
guidance will likely be slow to pick up on the degree of warmth
this weekend and early next week. Temperatures were raised a few
degrees most days as well. High temperatures may make a run at
90 early next week with heat index values into the 90`s.

If Jose were to trend back to the southwest which is looking
more unlikely, it would be much weaker. More clouds along with
somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted would
occur as well.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Conditions are forecast to be mostly in the IFR range this
morning from KPHL/KILG/KPNE/KTTN eastward. MVFR conditions are
expected at KRDG and KABE. A gradual improvement is anticipated
for this afternoon with all but KMIV and KACY returning to VFR
by this evening.

Frequent rain showers are anticipated for KACY and KMIV today.
Scattered rain showers are expected for KTTN, KPNE, KPHL and
KILG. The rain showers are forecast to have limited impact on
the visibility except perhaps at KACY and KMIV.

A northeast wind today is expected to become north and
northwest for tonight. Speeds at KPHL/KILG/KPNE/KTTN are
forecast to be around 15 knots today with gusts near 25 knots.
They should diminish to 10 to 15 knots for tonight. Speeds will
be a bit higher at KACY and KMIV, and a bit lower at KRDG and
KABE.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday through Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds
10- 15 knots decreasing on Thursday to under 10 knots. Patchy
fog if winds go light enough Thursday morning for KRDG, KABE and
KMIV.

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Winds under 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
We have upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for our ocean
waters from Fenwick Island, Delaware to Little Egg Inlet, New
Jersey. Sustained wind speeds of 34 knots or greater are
anticipated in part of that area.

Meanwhile, we will keep the Tropical Storm Watch in place for
our ocean waters north of Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey. We now
have a Small Craft Advisory for all of Delaware Bay.

It continues to appear as though wave heights on our outer
ocean waters will build around 15 feet today.

OUTLOOK...

Seas will be slow to come down through the remainder of the
week. Potential is present for seas to fall at or below five
feet by Thursday but remain at that level through Saturday.
Winds will decrease gradually through Wednesday-Wednesday night
from the north and northwest falling below 25 knots on
Wednesday.

Rip Currents...

Hurricane Jose will continue to push powerful swells toward the
coasts of Delaware and New Jersey for today. As a result, there
remains a high risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents. Also, a High Surf Advisory is in effect.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for our coastal counties
and for the counties along Delaware Bay. It appears as though
we will experience minor flooding with this morning`s high tide
and moderate flooding with this evening`s high tide as the surge
builds near 2 feet above the astronomical tide.

Also, we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in place for New Castle
County and Salem County for tonight`s high tide.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSMQ metar is not being sent out attm. Problem is being looked
into.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Wednesday for NJZ016.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Wednesday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ452>455.
     Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ450-451.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Gaines
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/Iovino
Marine...Gaines/Iovino
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Equipment...Staff

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion